News from 2026-07-15 / KfW Development Bank

The impact of Chinese export surpluses on developing and emerging economies

China’s export machine is running at full speed – and is fundamentally changing the economic landscape for developing and emerging economies: on the one hand, low-cost imports from state-subsidised growth sectors are curbing inflation in the short term and facilitating investment – for example, in renewable energy. On the other hand, there is a growing risk of deindustrialisation and of these countries becoming entrenched in the role of mere raw material suppliers or assembly hubs.

The latest issue of “Development in brief” analyses how the new wave of Chinese overcapacity is affecting regions from Africa to India, South-East Asia and Latin America, and highlights which trade defense instruments and structural reforms are needed to ensure that the short-term price advantage does not become a long-term risk to development.

The impact of Chinese export surpluses on developing and emerging economies